One of the most common questions I get is "how do I know if a competition is worth entering?" And honestly, it's a fair question. Not all comps are created equal, and a bit of basic maths can save you from wasting money on terrible odds.
Let me break it down for you.
The Basic Formula
At its simplest, you want to compare what you're paying with what you might win. This is called expected value, and it's how mathematicians make gambling sound boring.
Here's the formula:
Expected Value = (Prize Value ÷ Total Tickets) - Ticket Price
If the expected value is positive, mathematically speaking, it's a "good" bet. If it's negative, you're expected to lose money over time.
A Real Example
Let's say there's a competition for a car worth £30,000. They're selling 10,000 tickets at £5 each.
- Prize Value: £30,000
- Total Tickets: 10,000
- Ticket Price: £5
Expected Value = (£30,000 ÷ 10,000) - £5 = £3 - £5 = -£2
So on average, you'd "lose" £2 per ticket. Not great, but not unusual for this industry.
When Is It Actually Good Value?
Occasionally, you'll find competitions where the maths actually works in your favour. This usually happens when:
- The prize is worth significantly more than the total ticket revenue
- The competition is underselling (not enough people entering)
- There are multiple prizes increasing your chances
Using our formula, a competition is mathematically "good value" when the expected value is positive. But let's be real – most competitions are negative expected value. They're businesses, not charities.
But Here's the Thing...
Expected value isn't the whole story. If it was, nobody would ever enter any competition (or buy a lottery ticket, for that matter).
Some other factors worth considering:
Your Personal Odds
If a competition requires skill – like answering a question or submitting a creative entry – your odds might be better than the raw numbers suggest. If you're genuinely good at the skill involved, you're not competing against everyone, just the people who are also good.
The Life-Changing Factor
A £5 ticket for a 1-in-10,000 chance at a house might be "bad" mathematically, but it could be the only realistic way you'll ever own property. Sometimes the potential upside matters more than the expected value.
Entertainment Value
Let's be honest – entering competitions is fun for some people. If you enjoy the anticipation and can afford the entry fee, the "cost" might be worth it for the entertainment alone.
Red Flags to Watch For
Some competitions are objectively terrible value and should be avoided:
- Unlimited tickets – If there's no cap, your odds could be 1 in a million
- Hidden ticket numbers – If they won't tell you how many tickets are being sold, assume it's a lot
- Prize value inflation – That "£50,000 prize bundle" might actually be worth £15,000 at retail
- Multiple draws from one pool – If they're running the same competition for weeks, your odds get worse with each draw
My Personal Rule
I look for competitions where the total ticket revenue is less than twice the prize value. So for a £30,000 car, I want to see total ticket sales under £60,000.
It's not a perfect rule, but it filters out the obvious bad value comps pretty quickly.
The Bottom Line
Understanding odds and value won't guarantee you'll win anything. But it will help you make smarter decisions about where to put your money.
Enter competitions because you want to, with money you can afford to lose. But do it with your eyes open – and maybe a calculator in hand.
